Complexity and public policy: a new approach to twenty-first century politics, policy and society

List of figures

List of tables

Preface

Acknowledgements

Introduction

The Problem of order: three symbolic cases - Nicolas, Emile and Leila

From the pursuit of order to the paradigm of complexity

Three brief points and a note on definitions

The plan of the book

1. From orderly to complexity science

The paradigm of order

Spreading ripples of doubt

Complex systems in the physical world

Complex systems in the biotic world

Orderly (modernist) social science and public policy

Disorderly (post-modernist) social science and public policy

Complexity and social science

Complexity and public policy

2. Concepts of complexity

Key concepts of physical complex systems

Key concepts of biotic complex systems

Key concepts of conscious complex systems

3. Tools of complexity

Cascade of complexity

Balance and range of outcomes

Complexity mapping

Fitness landscape

A different point of view: the fitness landscape

The Stacey diagram

Stakeholder involvement and soft systems methodology

4. Politics

What would a 'complexity map' of politics look like?

Complexity and democracy

What would a complexity theory of democracy look like?

Fundamental regularities and threats

Complexity and the 'third way'

How does complexity differ from and go beyond the third way?

Complexity, politics and the third sector

Is the EU compatible with the third sector?

Using the 'balance and range of outcomes' tool to help the EU promote the third sector

Conclusion

5. Health

The influence of the paradigm of order on health

Better health at a fraction of the cost - focusing on the basics

An efficient national health system: the Cuban case

Is Cuba's experience unique and what is the magic formula?

The case of the English national health service

Complexity and chronic illness: the case of diabetes

Understanding chronic illness - from order to complexity

Using a fitness landscape to improve diabetes management

A different point of view: the fitness landscape

Bringing it all together

6. The international arena

International relations theory

European integration theory

Integrating complexity

Applying a complexity map to the international arena and European Union

General implications

Globalisation, Europeanisation and the curious case of the non-death of Scandinavian exceptionalism

Implications

Another example: the predictable proposal for a true capital of Europe

Using a complexity cascade to visualise the development of the EU, Scandinavia and Brussels

Conclusion

7. Development

The case for radical change in development practice

Lopsided view of the way nations evolve

Why to the successful succeed? Self-organised complexity

Why do the unsuccessful stagnate?

A more realistic vision of development

From x-y to fitness landscape thinking

Why changing the framework of development is so slow

Concluding remarks: from hard to soft management

8. Planning dreams into nightmares: The Iraq adventure

The predictability of failure

Doubts were ignored

Was it just state incompetence and/or lack or preparation?

Massive costs and negligible benefits

The underlying questions

Where did the complexity come from?

Three acts of orderly reasonableness, but complexity madness

Could others have done better? The Stacey diagram

9. Exploding the myths of terrorism

Myth 1. There is a clear and agreed definition of terror, terrorism and terrorist

Myth 2. September 11 was a tragedy and not a political opportunity

Myth 3. One can reduce the elements of a complex international system into separate and manageable units

Myth 4. The 'war on terror' is a global affair

Myth 5. Global and regional powers are simply reacting to terrorism

Myth 6. The 'war on terror' is being won

Myth 7. Current terrorism is a new type of terrorism

Myth 8. The scale of terrorism has radically increased

Myth 9. Middle eastern and Islamic terrorism is a new and major threat

Myth 10. Al-Qaeda is new as well

Beyond the myths: what does complexity tell us?

A complexity map of international terrorism and its implications

10. Conclusion: Towards a complex and humane public policy for the twenty-first century

Isn't complexity just a recipe for doing nothing?

Is there a morality of complexity?

What can complexity do for the weak?

Why has complexity been so slow to spill over into the social sciences and public policy?

Can complexity be inspirational?

How do we go forward from here?

And finally ... a couple of playful mental exercises

Notes

Bibliography

Index